Word: galluping
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...Pollster Gallup defends the accuracy of his poll with a mathematical formula: "Suppose there are 7,000 white beans and 3,000 black beans well churned up in a barrel. If you scoop out 100 of them, you'll get approximately 70 white beans and 30 black in your hand and the range of your possible error can be computed mathematically. As long as the barrel contains many more beans than your handful, the proportion will remain within that margin of error 997 times out of 1,000." The reverse, he maintains, is equally true: a proportion...
Thus Pollster Gallup's problem is: 1) to work out the proportions of the barrel, i.e., determine the true social, political and economic complexion of the U.S. people; 2) choose his handful (people to be interviewed) accordingly; 3) make sure that the two correspond exactly...
...live in the Middle Atlantic states, that 34% of them live in cities of over 100,000 population, that only 23% of them are of average means (i.e., skilled workers, white-collar employees, small shopkeepers), that 43% of them are between the ages of 30 and 49. If necessary, Gallup statisticians can dig deeper: 16% of them are farmers; 42% of them have gone to high school; 38% now call themselves Democrats, 36% Republicans, 26% independents, third party or no party...
...those percentages in choosing their subjects to be interviewed, the whole U.S. electorate can safely be reduced to a miniature sample of only 3,000.* And despite the cherished American illusion of rugged individualism, the factors which determine voters opinions are the factors neatly worked out on Dr. Gallup's chart...
Like all theories, Gallup's has its obvious limits. No poll is any better than its interviewers. Though the polltakers' instructions carefully specify the cross-section to be taken, some Gallup pollsters are reluctant to venture into poorer districts; others fill out their ballots by punching doorbells in the daytime, thus missing jobholders...