Word: forecasting
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Inflation. Despite weak growth, price pain will abate only slowly, if at all. Through the year, the rate is forecast to drop from today's 13.3% to 10.4%. Even if that happens, the 1979-80 period will go into the record books as the first peacetime case of back-to-back years with double-digit inflation...
Carter aides figured a 15% to 20% run-up in oil prices as part of their 1980 forecast. M.I.T. Oil Economist Morris A. Adelman argues that OPEC has adopted a tactic of "permanent brinkmanship," which will keep the oil supply just short of world demand, while continuing to raise prices. The U.S. must fight back by substantially cutting consumption. But Adelman fears that "our national rhetoric is balanced by our reluctance to do anything...
...Administration rosily predicts only 10.4% inflation this year, but its 1979 forecast of 7.4% price rises causes doubts about the reliability of the White House crystal ball. Most private analysts see prices increasing at about 11% this year, assuming that a mild economic downturn occurs. Without any recession, inflation may repeat last year's 13%. Reacting to the worry that worse economic news is yet to come, bond prices last week slumped dramatically and yields rose to levels even higher than those set after the Federal Reserve's credit tightening last October...
...Carter Administration, which apparently accepts Waldheim's gloomy forecast, moved last week to bring a resolution calling for economic sanctions against Iran to a Security Council vote. The American proposal calls on U.N. members to halt all exports to Iran, except food and medicine. In addition, it would curb the Iranians' ability to obtain new foreign loans or convert their dollars into other Western currencies...
...Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which comprises the world's 24 leading non-Communist nations, also issued a grim forecast, and on an even larger scale: a rise to $26 per bbl. would cut nearly 1% off its members' economic growth, reducing it to stagnation at best, and push OECD inflation up from an earlier projected 9% to at least 10%. Largely as a consequence of the oil increases, the organization now expects unemployment in its member nations to rise from just under 17 million to a full 20 million...