Word: forecasting
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...Vries' prophecies carry clout, in part because he has exhibited a phenomenal knack for predicting just about every rise and dip in the value of the dollar. De Vries has forecast U.S. balance of payments results so accurately that the Federal Reserve once launched an investigation to find out if some of its staffers were leaking the figures before the official publication date. All the Fed learned was that De Vries has a "secret formula" for calculating trade balances that he vows never to reveal...
...attempt to model the future of America's energy sector. A 26-year-old computer whiz developed an "end use" model to predict total electricity consumption through the year 2000. Roughly speaking, it counts the nation's light bulbs, toasters and all other electricity use, including industrial machinery, to forecast aggregate electricity figures for different geographic regions. This forecasting technique--"an engineering model"--differs significantly from economic models, because it entirely ignores the role prices play in determining the nation's energy mix. The Westinghouse electricity model projects both demographic trends and economic indicators, such as total population, housing stock...
Board members split sharply over the timing of the economy's eventual return to good health. There was also disagreement regarding just how buoyant or fitful the recovery would be. Most members forecast that the economy would either continue to decline or stagnate until the end of the year-this is in sharp disagreement with Commerce Department Chief Economist Courtenay Slater, who two weeks ago declared that the recession had ended in July or August. A minority of TIME'S economists anticipated that a modest drop would continue into early...
...false signs of a rebound. Said Republican Alan Greenspan, the head of a New York-based consulting firm: "I would expect that the incipient recovery will stall within the next eight weeks." The economists generally predicted that U.S. business will be sluggish next year. The board's median forecast for 1981 anticipates growth of 2.7%, although individual predictions ranged widely. Republican Murray Weidenbaum, director of the Center for the Study of American Business at Washington University in St. Louis, forecast a relatively brisk 4% expansion, but independent Economic Consultant Robert Nathan projected an all-but-invisible expansion of only...
...General Assembly. With a certain irony, the Zimbabwe delegation was seated right behind that of Britain, its former colonial master. Mugabe, however, had no time for recriminations. He praised Britain for "a job well done" in negotiating the turnover of his country to black majority rule. Though he forecast the eventual development of a home-grown form of socialism in Zimbabwe, he renewed earlier pledges that his country would not be aligned with East or West. Said he: "We will not let any of our friends choose for us who should be our other friends...