Word: forecasting
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That gloomy forecast reflected Somoza's growing diplomatic isolation as well as his deteriorating military position. The first setback came when the Andean Group (Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Colombia and Venezuela) abandoned its efforts to negotiate a truce in the latest flare-up of the 19-month-old civil war. Instead, the five countries declared that a "state of belligerency" existed in Nicaragua and that they considered the Sandinistas to be "a legitimate army." The declaration was designed to allow the group to supply arms to the rebels without violating international laws against intervention in the internal affairs of another...
...nation's 50-month-old recovery, is slowing substantially. The nation's output of goods and services grew by a paltry .8% in the first quarter. For April and May, industrial production actually declined, though only slightly, for the first time since January 1978. The standard forecast now is for a shallow slump lasting no more than two to three quarters...
Despite the forecast of modest achievements, Carter went to Vienna visibly excited. He told aides that he had looked forward to meeting Brezhnev more than almost anything else during his years as President, and he spent an unprecedented amount of time preparing for the encounter. He phoned Richard Nixon, who had signed SALT I in Moscow in 1972, for advice on how to deal with Brezhnev. Gerald Ford came by the White House to suggest that if Brezhnev became blustery, as he did at Vladivostok in 1974, Carter should respond politely but firmly and not retreat an inch. CIA Director...
From Erick, Okla., over near the Texas border, Moore calls Norman. The lab reports that the storm clouds are "falling apart." Moore is unconvinced. He heads west again to get a better look at a cloud bank that seems to contradict the forecast. "Look at that thing!" Moore yells. "It's going up! Hell yes, it's going up!" He throws the pickup into a fast U-turn. He turns on the AM radio just in time to hear an unmistakable crackle. "If I didn't know better," Moore shouts, "I'd say that was lightning...
There is, however, plenty that could go wrong with this forecast. A major imponderable is the pickup in business spending for new plant and equipment. Corporations are expected to increase capital investments this year by 16%, but the rise is a mixed blessing. If, as expected, capital spending continues fairly strong through the early part of the recession, it will help cushion the slump. But if a capital investment boom develops, it could delay the recession and ultimately make it worse...