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...Although most of Washington's European and Arab allies fear the consequences of a war will be more dangerous than any peril represented by Saddam Hussein, they could not contest the Bush Administration's insistence that Saddam's continued defiance of UN disarmament demands is intolerable. Although the President has been unable to win significant international support for his regime change policy, he has succeeded in forging an international consensus behind an ultimatum, backed by a threat of force, demanding that Baghdad surrender its weapons of mass destruction. That leaves the question of war or peace principally in the hands...
...UN resolution - and the strong mandate President Bush received at the polls on Tuesday - reopens the question of the Administration's fundamental goal in Iraq. For the hawks led by Vice President Dick Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, the objective is to get rid of Saddam's regime, and reviving the UN arms inspection regime had been viewed at best as an inadequate guarantee of disarmament, and at worst a dangerous distraction from the task at hand. But they were convinced to take the matter back to the UN as a means of securing international support and legitimacy...
...current standoff is disarmament. They believe a new ultimatum on weapons of mass destruction that gives Baghdad no wiggle room and is backed up by an absolutely credible military threat offers the best chance of peacefully disarming Iraq. Last month, Powell even suggested that full compliance with UN terms would in itself constitute regime change because that would signal Saddam's regime had fundamentally altered its ways...
...past year assiduously courting Washington's Arab allies in the hope of persuading erstwhile enemies against siding with the U.S. Most of those regimes have come out against a new war, but they've also made clear to Baghdad that avoiding one will depend on Saddam complying with UN requirements...
...point them to sensitive weapons sites from the get-go. If Saddam stonewalls at the palace gates, the next steps are clear - the Security Council reconvenes, but President Bush quickly orders his military to launch Operation Regime Change. Less clear is what happens if the Iraqis comply with the UN resolution and string the inspection process along by avoiding any actions that could be construed as obstruction. Because that won't signal that the regime has changed its ways; it will simply be the same old Saddam Hussein doing what he knows he has to do in order to stay...