Word: goodstein
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...beginning to see "polar bear fatigue." How about bringing the effects of Arctic melt close to home, as in what it will cost? A new study does just that, and the results are alarming, not just for Arctic dwellers but for all of us. According to lead author Eban Goodstein, Ph.D., over the next 40 years Arctic ice melt will take an economic toll of between $2.4 trillion and $24 trillion. Unless we change course - and fast...
...melting Arctic so expensive? "The Arctic acts as the planet's air conditioner, and that function is already breaking down," says Goodstein, an economist and Director of the Bard Center for Environmental Policy. The high price reflects anticipated losses in agriculture and real estate plus the cost of disease outbreaks and natural disasters associated with rising sea levels. The melt, he says, is already adding extra heat at an annual rate of 3 billion tons of CO2 - the equivalent of 500 coal-powered plants, or more than 40% of all U.S. fossil fuel emissions - and this is expected to more...
...study looked at damages at different SCC and discount rates. "Using the mid-range EPA figure, the cumulative global cost between now and the middle of the century will exceed $7 trillion," says Goodstein. "This means that every working adult will have to pay half of a year's salary just to cover the damage of the breakdown of the Arctic air conditioner." The higher figure used in the survey, based on the U.K.'s 2007 Stern report, yields significantly greater damage estimates...
...unlike the low probability of losing your house to fire, we know that the Arctic is warming. And this study offers an inkling of what it could cost us - if we don't act. "No matter how you slice it, these are big numbers," says Goodstein. "The Arctic air conditioner is breaking down in a big way. Half-measures won't work. If we can get carbon emissions down, we can retain more of this function...
...Goodstein points out, it is the young generation of students who will have to live with the consequences of global warming. One of the challenges to dealing with climate change is that the threat is truly long-term. The science says it will worsen over time, and that we need to act now to prevent serious damage tomorrow, but it's difficult to keep that in mind when the country is faced with other, seemingly more pressing priorities. Climate change can always be passed off to the next year, the next generation. But not any longer. James Hansen...