Word: giuliani
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...another out-of-stater who was elected to the Senate in 1964. New York has 1.9 million more registered Democrats than Republicans, and Hillary's presence in the race would whip them into a frenzy. Among the Democrats' core constituencies--Manhattan liberals, women, unions and minorities--Hillary would bury Giuliani. The mayor's relations with blacks, especially, are precarious. The city's crackdown on crime has led to an increase in complaints against police and a sense of siege among blacks. The police shooting last month of Amadou Diallo, an unarmed Guinean immigrant, has ignited passions. Though the crisis will...
...make no mistake: against Giuliani, she would be in for a bruising fight. Sources say Ickes has warned her to gird for the battle of her life. "This is not a shoo-in," admits an adviser. Giuliani and his surrogates would try to make an issue of her carpetbagging and question her commitment to fixing potholes in Syracuse. As much as she will energize Democratic loyalists, her candidacy would mobilize the right, become fodder for G.O.P. direct-mail fund raising and unite New York's upstate conservatives--good news for Giuliani, who has never recovered their good graces since endorsing...
...Republican, Giuliani also runs extremely well with many Democratic-leaning swing voters. His brutally efficient success in reducing crime, paring welfare rolls, fighting smut and ending vagrancy has endeared him to middle-class white ethnics outside Manhattan; his pro-choice, pro-immigrant, opera-friendly moderation on social issues makes him palatable to soccer moms. While hardened city dwellers mutter about Giuliani's safer, duller New York, suburbanites love it. In the TIME/CNN survey, Giuliani received a favorability rating of 40% among New York City voters but outpolled Hillary 52% to 41% in the suburbs...
...Jewish groups what she really meant last year when she called for Palestinian statehood. In the TIME/CNN poll, half of Jewish voters, who account for 10% of the state's registered voters, say they disagree. While most say her position wouldn't be sufficient reason to vote against her, Giuliani--who won 7 of 10 Jewish votes in 1997--is already exploiting the issue; last week he slapped her for "siding with the Palestinians against the Israelis." This is, after all, the man who in 1995 had Yasser Arafat ushered out of a city-sponsored party...
...many ways, Rudy and Hillary will be battling each other on the same centrist policy terrain. It will heighten the chance that the campaign will turn on personal politics--who gets uglier, and more rattled, in the charge and countercharge of a New York election. Giuliani won't hesitate to go negative. In 1997 he accused his overmatched opponent, Ruth Messinger, of giving a party in the 1970s for an Attica prison inmate; suggested she supported X-rated video stores; and all but blamed her for the Brooklyn Dodgers' 1957 move to Los Angeles. But Giuliani could pay a price...