Word: gdp
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...brisk economic recovery is finally here. Numbers like 54 - Friday's ISM manufacturing sector index for February, signaling the first growth in America's battered industrial sector since July 2000. Or 58 - Tuesday's ISM index for the services sector, highest since November 2000. Or 1.4 percent - revised GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2001. Or 0.4 percent - which is how much consumer spending and personal income both rose in January, the biggest rise in eight months...
...Then there's 262 and 217, the Dow's gains Friday and Monday, respectively, as the index posted its biggest back-to-back percentage gains since September. Then there's 3.5 percent, Merrill Lynch's brand-new forecast for GDP growth, revised upward Monday from 2.0 percent, and Morgan Stanley's even more bullish Monday upgrade to a forecast of 4.5 to 5 percent. And those forecasts are just for the first quarter...
...just two days, Wall Street has seen Alan Greenspan's cautiously optimistic prediction of the near-term economic picture - an anemic 2.5 to 3.0 percent GDP growth for 2002, with plenty of cautious caveats - and raised him a whole bunch of exuberance. Forget the glass-half-full predictions of a "U"-shaped recession (gentle recession, gentle recovery); laugh at those who worried about an "L" (steep recession, very gentle recovery) and twelve more months of thirst. Investors are now back to betting big on the "V" - the snap-back boom...
...Japan's looming economic Armageddon before. But Washington is worried that the fallout from Japan's malaise could hamper a nascent U.S. recovery. Worse, there's no quick-fix option. The world's second-largest economy, Japan labors under the globe's highest level of public debt--140% of GDP. Across the nation, bankruptcies and unemployment are soaring. Practically everything else--stock values, consumer prices, confidence--is in free fall. The biggest crisis of all is the yen. With the Bank of Japan printing money to offset a liquidity crisis, the currency is sliding fast...
...rollers to debase the new common currency by spending more than they could afford and running high deficits that would ignite inflation. So every member of the monetary union had to don a whalebone corset "Made in Germany." Above all, nobody could generate a deficit higher than 3% of GDP. Or else...