Word: gdp
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...number like 11,000-and holding it-may be more important than many believe. The stock market is as much an emotional barometer as it is a gauge of the economy. Indeed, if stocks were purely rational, the Dow would have set a new record by now. GDP growth is on track, inflation is tame, corporate earnings are good, dividends are up and values have become attractive. Large-cap valuations in particular, says Leon Cooperman, who runs the $4 billion hedge fund Omega Advisers, "are reasonable...
...weddings," says Kondababu. "Sometimes families get broken up by gold." Economists argue that the gold bug has other pernicious effects. If the money used to buy gold was invested in banks or stocks, rather than being locked up in a non-productive asset, it would boost India's GDP significantly, they say. But old ways of thinking die hard. Gold is seen by many as a safe haven in an uncertain world. "So many banks fail and close their doors, and ordinary people get hurt when that happens," says Jhansi Rani, a schoolteacher in Madras, pointing out the case...
...Illarionov: The economy is doing fine-if you gauge it in traditional ways. The growth of GDP is 6.2%, which is good. The market is growing. Russia's state foreign debt has been brought down to $86 billion. This is 11% to 12% of the GDP versus 96% six years ago. But do we compare Russia to developed countries or to a country like China that has the GDP growth of 9%-or oil producers like Azerbaijan with 12%, or Kazakhstan with 19%. This way, we see that Russia's achievement is more than modest. Under oil windfall profits, Russia...
...Illarionov: Our Stabilization Fund is $40 billion now. This is 6% of the annual GDP. But Norway's Stabilization Fund makes 70% of the GDP. China imports oil, but its hard currency reserves have grown by 22%. Russia's GDP is worth $200 billion. Some $100 to 110 of it comes from the oil windfall profit. According to Russia's Central Bank, the export of capital this year has reached some $40 billion...
...some clouds are gathering. "The risk of recession is clearly higher," says James O'Sullivan, economist at UBS Securities. "But it's far from certain." He estimates that growth in GDP will slow this summer to about 2.5% from an estimated 3.5% to 4% in the first quarter. That's hardly a disaster. In fact, it's pretty much what the Federal Reserve hopes to accomplish with its long campaign of short-term rate hikes geared at keeping inflation under control and stretching out the recovery...