Word: galluping
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Some of them had reason to worry. This year Rogers Dunn, praised by Columnist Hugh Johnson, widely quoted by pro-Willkie newspapers when the Gallup Poll began to go against their man, surveyed 40 States by various formulas (not sampling of the populace), offered no estimate of the popular vote. To Wendell Willkie he gave 29 States with a total of 364 electoral votes, to Franklin Roosevelt only eleven States with 124 electoral votes...
Best known of these polls was Dr. George Gallup's American Institute of Public Opinion. In 1936 the Gallup Poll successfully predicted Roosevelt's election. To be sure, it underestimated Roosevelt's strength by over 6%, but it was 13 percentage points closer than the Digest. Dr. Gallup's data last week showed a 52% majority for Roosevelt and 21 States in the President's bag. But he allowed himself a 4% margin of probable error, and day before election he wrote in the newspapers subscribing to his poll that he did not believe...
...American Opinion Forecasts poll, conducted by Edward J. Wall* on a scientific sampling basis, reported a 52% Roosevelt sentiment. This was the same as Gallup's prediction, but Mr. Wall allowed himself a statistical error of 2%, definitely predicted that Roosevelt would win the popular vote although Willkie might have a majority on the electoral college. But in 1940, as in 1936, the closest estimate of the popular vote was made by quiet, curly-haired Elmo Burns Roper, who has never made any great hullabaloo because he was one of the first to undertake political polls by the scientific...
Relying on scientific methods rather than the size of his sample, Roper, with a small staff of interviewers (81, compared to Gallup's 1,100 and Wall's 4,000), seldom samples the opinions of more than 5,000 citizens, chosen according to age, occupation, sex, economic condition, geographical distribution. (Gallup, in his State-by-State polls, may question as many as 60,000 people.) Roper's interviewers are carefully trained, rigidly supervised to prevent personal opinions from affecting their work. Always he checks back, querying interviewees by post card, to make sure that his interviewers have...
...topic upon which we can all unite at the present time is national defense," Colonel Dana T. Gallup acting Judge Advocate of Massachusetts, told a limited audience. "Resting upon the democratic principle that all must register and that men are chosen for service by their civilian neighbors, the draft answers the need for defense in a fair and efficient way," he said...