Word: forecasting
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...year, inflation is once again moving up slightly: in April the rate climbed to 4.9%, due largely to higher costs for food and fuel. As a result, several polls, including one by the Conference Board, a business-sponsored research concern, and another by Sindlinger & Co., a private forecast firm, show some recent slippage in "consumer confidence"-that is, Americans' willingness to spend savings or go into debt to buy goods...
Trouble is, all that is the script as seen by politicians, pollsters and pundits, and throughout this volatile spring, the American voter has been upsetting many an expert forecast. Skeptical, grousing and defiantly refusing to be shoved into anyone's political pocket, the voter is giving the pollsters an unusual drubbing. It is as if the voters are saying perversely: "O.K., wise guys, you think you've got me pegged? Well, you're wrong...
...last week. Ford's closest aides were dreadfully afraid that he would lose his home state of Michigan, and his own polls showed him only narrowly ahead. But the President revived his campaign with a resounding 2-to-1 win. In one race that did go according to forecast, he carried Maryland by 16 percentage points. The polls also showed a confident Carter to be leagues ahead of Morris Udall in Michigan and in front of Brown in Maryland. Instead, the Georgian beat Udall by only a whisker and lost to Brown by twelve percentage points...
...Inflation will subside a bit more than was commonly believed. In December board members thought that the rate of price increases for 1976 would be about 6.6% (as measured by the Consumer Price Index); since then, 6% has become the standard forecast. Now some board members foresee even a slightly slower pace-perhaps 5.7%. Main reason: food and fuel prices have declined more than expected...
...forecast is largely based on studies conducted over the past several years by climatologists at the University of Wisconsin. They project that the world's climate, which for several decades had been ideal for agriculture, is returning to the conditions that existed from 1600 to 1850. That period was a "Little Ice Age" characterized by lower temperatures, shorter growing seasons and periods of famine...