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...comforted by the results. That's because two different scenarios are used to stress test the balance sheets of financial institutions: baseline and adverse scenario. The baseline was designed to represent the consensus at the time in which the plan was presented. Unfortunately, current macroeconomic conditions are already worse than the adverse scenario (which is closer to the new consensus) for all the three variables of the test -unemployment, real GDP and home prices. (See TIME's "25 People to Blame for the Financial Collapse...
...Take the unemployment rate: the adverse scenario of the stress test is based on an average unemployment rate of 10.3% for 2009. However, at the current pace unemployment is more likely to hit the 11% mark. On a quarterly basis, the rate of unemployment is already well beyond the levels assumed by the adverse scenario for the end of the first quarter of 2009. Similar considerations apply to U.S. real GDP and home prices. (Read about the top 10 bankruptcies...
...answer to the first question is no. Recapitalization needs will likely exceed what the current stress tests suggest since macroeconomic conditions are bound to be worse than the consensus anticipates, making the adverse scenario of the stress tests look mild. At this point in time, banks are still facing well over $1 trillion in losses over the next couple of years, even if low short-term interest rates make new loans very profitable. Moreover, according to RGE Monitor, real U.S. GDP growth will inch back into positive rates only toward the end of 2009 rather than at the beginning...
...Current co-chairs Marco Chan ’11 and Rogelio J. Mercado, Jr. ’10 say the name change was intended to make the organization more inclusive...
...Gaza war made clear to all sides that Hamas could not be eliminated, and that everything from the urgent business of rebuilding the shattered territory to negotiating a peace deal with Israel could not be done without the organization's consent. Hence the current efforts to broker a unity government backed by both Fatah and Hamas. But as things stand, the U.S. wants that government to endorse the same principles it has demanded that Hamas embrace as a precondition for recognition: Recognize Israel, renounce violence and abide by previous agreements. No dice, says Hamas, which has its own ideas about...