Word: centrebet
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...normal patterns this week, the election campaign has begun?though the poll isn't due until late 2007. Howard is seeking a fifth term and remains the punters' favorite: employment and consumer spending are strong, the Prime Minister is a wily operator, his opponent an inexperienced leader. According to Centrebet, based on a $1 wager, a win for Howard's Liberal-National coalition will return $1.72; one for Labor $2. But the sports-betting agency says Labor could become the favorite within weeks. A combination of voters' curiosity and Rudd's fidelity to the media spotlight has produced...
...Odds of former Czech President Vaclav Havel winning the Nobel Peace Prize this year, according to betting website Centrebet...
Long before Australians knew the date of the federal election, they were betting on its outcome. Centrebet, one of the country's biggest bookmakers, had taken $300,000 in wagers by Aug. 27; another $30,000 came in last weekend. Expat Justin Wolfers, a professor of business at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, has a special interest in where the money is going. That's not just because he's backed Labor - currently at around $2.30, which he says reflects a 38% probability of victory. Wolfers believes that by the end of the campaign betting prices will reveal...
Markets aren't infallible, of course: Australian punters failed to predict the upset wins of Paul Keating in 1993 and Steve Bracks in 1999. And I.E.M. traders wrongly predicted in 2000 that Bush would win the popular vote as well as the presidency. In early July, Centrebet manager Gerard Daffy had several calls from people wanting to bet on the date of the election. He didn't open a book "for obvious reasons," he says. If he had, punters would have had another miss: "The date they were looking for was Sept...