Word: baathists
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Dates: during 1990-1999
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...then what? Advocates suggest there is a palatable alternative to Saddam just waiting to step in. In fact, all efforts to organize an effective Iraqi opposition have failed. There is a good chance Saddam would be replaced by Saddam II, another Baathist general ready to continue the military dictatorship. More likely still, a headless Iraq would go the way of Lebanon, fractured among Kurds in the north, Shi'ites in the south and Sunnis in the center egged on by meddling neighbor states pursuing oil and ethnic interests...
Saddam is still in power, of course, and there has been much debate about Bush's decision not to send his tanks to Baghdad and topple the Baathist leader. But the President insists that the chastened and defanged Iraqi dictator is no worldly threat today. "The Republican Guard units, some of them, have been dismantled," he says. "Most of them are 50% strength. And it's a different army. They aren't capable ((of projecting)) aggression the way they did before...
True, Bush would have preferred and called many times for another Baathist to put a bullet through Saddam's head. His first choice was Saddamism without Saddam. But his second choice was Saddamism with Saddam...
Other promised liberalizations also offer little comfort to ordinary Iraqis. A new constitution that the regime says it will enact soon would grant Iraq's Kurdish minority a degree of autonomy, legalize political parties other than Saddam's Baathist organization, ban arbitrary arrests and guarantee freedom of expression and the right to hold peaceful demonstrations. An earlier amendment that would have made Saddam President for life has been scrapped. The proposed constitution, however, contains a loophole that leaves many Iraqis cynical about change: by declaring a state of emergency, the President could quickly abrogate these newfound freedoms...
...self-deception is not total, though. Saddam knew enough to confine his recent forays to the Baathist heartland, the mainstay of his support. It will be a long time, disenchanted Iraqis in Baghdad note, before the President will try to rally followers in the southern cities so recently devastated by his army...