Word: tsvangirai
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...election should be good news for Tsvangirai. Though political support is hard to gauge in a country as repressive as Zimbabwe, most international observers estimate that popular support for Zanu-PF runs only at about 10%. A clear victory for one party would also be good for the country, not least because it would bring to an end a coalition government that has been deadlocked and non-functioning since it was formed last February. South African President Jacob Zuma, who has acted as the mediator between the two sides, also backs the idea of a poll...
...Tsvangirai has come out against an election. In an interview with TIME earlier this month, the former trade union leader rejected any vote before both sides decided on a new constitution. Only after a draft is agreed upon and put to a referendum - the process set out in the agreement under which Mugabe and Tsvangirai agreed to share power - would elections be possible, he said. "People should not preempt process ... which is understood by all parties to be the law," he added. (See the top 10 news stories...
...situation is more, and less, complicated than it seems. On the one hand, both Mugabe and Tsvangirai find themselves fighting from unaccustomed corners, but on the other, their underlying motivations have not changed. Mugabe's one guiding principle remains to hold on to power. Having already survived a number of elections that went against him, he is likely calculating that a vote under the present rules is better than changing the rules altogether. This is also why Tsvangirai is insisting that the rules be altered. He wants a new government set-up in which the head of state -himself, Mugabe...
...Tsvangirai is probably trying to avoid a repeat of the 2008 presidential and parliamentary elections. The MDC leader claimed victory in the poll, but a government electoral body said that he hadn't won enough votes to avoid a run-off. Security forces under Mugabe's control then allegedly unleashed a series of vicious attacks on MDC members, leaving some 100 people dead and causing Tsvangirai to drop out of the run-off days before the vote. Mugabe was declared the winner, but the resulting international outcry was so great, he later agreed to share power Tsvangirai...
Logical as Tsvangirai's position might be, that won't stop Mugabe from painting him as being scared of elections. John Makumbe, a political lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe, says that "Zanu-PF is the last party that would want an election - and [the last party] that would win it." On the other hand, Mugabe is not going to miss a chance to "play to the gallery," he adds. Eldred Masunungure, a professor of political science at the same university, says the world needs to understand that a fair election is still impossible in Zimbabwe. "[Zanu-PF's] structures...