Word: shepherdson
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...Shepherdson, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, offered an equally qualified cheer. "This is a very pleasant surprise," he reported to clients on Friday. "Before we get too excited," he warned, "note that one good month is not a trend - December and January sales were much weaker...
...prepared to hazard the view that the post-Lehman meltdown is now over and the market is stabilizing" is how Ian Shepherdson of High-Frequency Economics greeted Wednesday's reported rise in new home sales. "That's not the same as a recovery, but it is better than continued declines in sales." (See which businesses are bucking the recession...
Another issue is that while there are signs that housing and consumer spending in the U.S. are no longer in the free fall of a few months ago, other parts of the economy are still in sharp decline. To quote Shepherdson again: "The epicenter of the recession has shifted from the consumer to the corporate sector." And it's possible that corporate cutbacks could lead to a relapse among consumers. "The main downside risk probably lies in sharper-than-expected multiplier effects via the dramatic deterioration in the labor market," warned Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius on Monday after predicting...
...nature of real estate that the crumbling may continue for a while yet. "It's way too premature to be talking about light at the end of the tunnel--it's still pitch black," says Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, a research firm. Shepherdson, not a congenitally bearish sort, was one of several prominent forecasters who began warning of housing troubles in 2005. Now he sees huge quantities of unsold inventory, which will lead to more cutbacks in construction, which will lead to more job losses and so on. "I don't want to call...
...reason could be because investors have been hurt before. "In the wake of the bubble, nobody wants to reach in and get their fingers burned," Shepherdson says. The pros have been wrong a lot lately (at least publicly) and the last thing Wall Street needs is to get fooled (or get caught fooling us) again. The bears who think stocks are overpriced and that war jitters is just a bad excuse, or that Saddam or Osama or Kim Jong Il has terrible surprises in store may or may not be right, but everybody remembers that they were sure right last...