Word: intifada
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...fire. It has become conventional wisdom for Israeli strategists today that Israel's unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon in 1999 was a dangerous mistake, because it was proclaimed throughout the Arab world as an epic victory for Hezbollah's armed struggle, and led Palestinian militants to launch the September 2000 intifada in the belief that violence could drive Israel out of the occupied West Bank and Gaza...
...political decline of the Palestinian Authority may now have entered its terminal phase. Its administrative and security structures have largely collapsed in the course of the intifada, and its institutional purpose - the completion of Oslo - appears to have outlived itself. Sharon has no intention of negotiating a settlement with the PA leadership. The PA's decline has been accompanied by the growing preeminence of Hamas and likeminded elements in Fatah, and it is that alliance that looks most likely to fill the political vacuum in Gaza once the Israelis withdraw. It is the prospect of the green and white banners...
...calling on Shiites to refrain from violence but at the same time expressing sympathy for their grievances and condemning Coalition actions - many Shiites loyal to Sistani have nonetheless joined protest actions led by the Sadrists. The danger is that the cost in casualties and strife of suppressing Moqtada's intifada and the Sunni insurgency could deepen anti-American feeling among neutral elements in the Sunni and Shiite communities that have not supported violence...
...weekend's violence came in clashes between Coalition troops and Sadr supporters who have occupied police stations and local council offices. Rather than hit-and-run attacks, the Sadrists have taken to the streets, combining mass protest with gunplay in scenes reminiscent of the opening weeks of the Palestinian intifada in the Fall of 2000. That association is far from coincidental - Moqtada has sought to stir up Shiite passions by likening the plight of Iraqis under occupation to that of the Palestinians, and he recently vowed to cooperate with Hamas and Hezbollah in avenging the death of the assassinated Gaza...
...Sistani's unmatched influence makes him the Coalition's best bet for tamping down the Moqtada intifada. But Sistani has his own quarrels with the U.S. The ayatollah has launched a national campaign against the minority veto provisions in the U.S.-brokered interim constitution, and he continues to push for early elections. The political price for his support against Moqtada would likely be a substantial rewriting of the transition plan, which could open new conflicts with the Sunni and Kurdish communities. Even then, the outpouring of Shiite popular anger evident in last weekend's violence may be difficult for Sistani...