Word: garzarelli
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...target anyway. Ralph Acampora, a veteran at Prudential Securities, two years ago predicted the move to 7000. Now that it's happened, his new target is 8250. And once we get there? On to 10,000, natch. Meanwhile, pundits who do make a bear stand don't last. Elaine Garzarelli, known for her 1987 warning, issued another late last summer but has already recanted. You can be sure that when this bull market finally ends there won't be anyone sounding an alarm. If you expect a savior, you're doomed...
Many Wall Street watchers have no doubt that even in a lean environment, Garzarelli will soon be snapped up. Traders and underwriters have suffered losses of$623 million in the second quarter (after earning $2.35 billion in profits the same quarter last year), so a record of good prognostication is sure to be worth something...
...while legions of individuals continued to follow Garzarelli's forecasts, Lehman Bros. sold its retail brokerage to Smith Barney last year and now concentrates on institutional investors. With the brokerage went the thousands of small clients whom Garzarelli had attracted. That made her expendable to Lehman, which went public last May and posted just $22 million in second- quarter earnings, down 79% from a year earlier. The firm has cut 800 jobs, or 8.5% of its work force, so far this year...
Lehman had also wearied of Garzarelli's independence. The star analyst insisted on working out of her Greenwich Village apartment, and issued bullish forecasts that clashed with the more bearish opinions of Katherine Hensel, the firm's chief market strategist. Garzarelli overestimated the strength of this year's market rally, for example, predicting that the Dow Jones average would hit 4600 by the end of 1994. The indicator has failed...
Guessing wrong on the market's direction is a hazard of the job. But Garzarelli also raised questions about her judgment when in a 1989 television appearance she recommended her firm's own stock, only to say a few days later she didn't know that was against the rules. And last August police in East Hampton, New York, arrested her on suspicion of drunken driving as she drove a male friend home from an all-night bout of champagne drinking. Garzarelli has pleaded not guilty to the charges...