Word: years
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Dates: during 1970-1979
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...severe will the slump be? TIME'S economists figure that, from this autumn's high to next year's low, the G.N.P. will decline a total of about 2.4%. That would be much less than the 5.7% plunge...
...tight money policy requires months to produce results. In fact, high interest rates will continue to add to inflation until they start to curb overall demand, and then prices are expected to taper off. Despite rising unemployment, wages and benefits stand to accelerate. They increased about 8% this year, or much less than the rate of inflation, and workers can make a strong case for more, just to catch...
JOBS. The success story of 1979 has been the remarkable rise in jobs, but opportunities will dry up next year. Though plenty of openings will remain for the skilled, untrained workers will be let go and let down. Unemployment, which dropped slightly last month to 5.8%, is expected to rise to 7.7% by the final quarter of 1980. That will be not nearly as severe as the recent peak of 9% in May 1975. Most board members agree that unemployment will hit a high around Election Day in November, which will hurt Jimmy Carter, and that the jobless rate again...
Although President Carter will face tremendous political pressure during election year to curb prices, board members felt that he would not try to impose mandatory wage and price controls, and that any attempt to do so would be disastrous. With the exception of Beryl Sprinkel, who figured that there is almost a 50% chance that the President will go for controls, most board members gave that prospect only a 20% to 40% chance. Carter first would need congressional authority and, as the debate raged on Capitol Hill, businessmen would rush to raise prices to get in under the wire. Further...
...deficit may well be swelled by a tax cut, if not in 1980 then in 1981. Congress has many ideas for reducing Social Security taxes; on Jan. 1, they will rise from $1,404 to $1,588 a year for anybody earning $25,900 or more. The Board of Economists expects that, in all, taxes will be cut by about $30 billion, including a reduction of some $10 billion for business, probably in the form of liberalized depreciation. Though such a move would increase the deficit at first, it would soon after pay dividends. By helping to sharpen the nation...