Word: xie
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...United States. But developing nations have been anything but safe havens in the recent turmoil, indicating that the decoupling theory will now be tested with a vengeance. "There's no question the slump in the US will have hurt [Asia's] exports," says Shanghai-based economist Andy Xie. Morgan Stanley's Roach believes decoupling is "one of those nice theories you hear at the top of market bubbles." The fact is, Roach argues, "that Asian consumers are too small to make up for the void created by U.S. consumption...
...going to be painful. Demand for everything from iron ore mined in western Australia to toys manufactured in southeastern China is already slowing, because for the first time in decade, the "key driver of the global economy, the U.S. consumer, seems to have finally thrown in the towel," says Xie. If that's true - if the American consumer's decade long, credit-driven party is really over - then soon enough they're not going to be the only ones suffering from a hangover...
...theory that countries like China and India are no longer dependent upon U.S. trade and can continue to power strong global growth even as the U.S. staggers. "There's no question the slump in the U.S. will hurt [Asia's] exports badly," says Shanghai-based independent economist Andy Xie. Indeed, demand for such diverse goods as iron ore mined in Australia and toys manufactured in China is already slowing, because for the first time in a decade the "key driver of the U.S. economy, the consumer, seems to have finally thrown in the towel," says Xie. If true...
...rush for the exits could pose problems for China's economy. According to a recent study by Merrill Lynch, China's investor class - an estimated 150 million people - has sunk 22% of its capital into the stock market, compared with 8% two years ago. Shanghai-based economist Andy Xie calculates that if the stock market drops by half, urban households will lose about 20% of their overall net worth, putting a dent in consumer spending. Overall, economists figure that a 50% decline in equity values might lop 1-1.5% off China's double-digit GDP-growth rate...
...inexperienced investors, accustomed to quick scores and relentlessly rising share prices, to ignore. Last month, a top official at the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Tu Guangshao, said investors needed to "educate themselves" about market risks. "Some sort of correction was inevitable, and it's probably here," says economist Xie. Although many investors believed the government would do nothing to damage confidence in stocks before Beijing hosts the 2008 Olympics next summer, that belief has proven to be unfounded. In recent weeks, regulators ordered commercial banks to freeze lending activities through the end of the year - a major step calculated...