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...X Factor #1 goes to Obama: Except for a few quick stops here and there, like his visit to Youngstown Monday, Obama has not yet dropped into Ohio and stayed for a few days. When that has happened elsewhere, his numbers have improved - dramatically...
...then there are some X Factors...
...X Factor #2 works for Clinton: Ohio's primary was for years much later in the spring than it is this time around; the parties moved it up this year to be more of a factor in the nominations, but registration closed on February 4. In addition, because Ohio now has a no-fault absentee law, the voting has been under way for some time now. Which means some early voters may have made up their minds before Obama's surge began and hit its stride...
...X Factor #3 could favor Obama: Ohio is an open primary, which means just about any registered voter can walk into a polling place and request a Democratic ballot. A state Democratic party official told TIME he expects expect turnout to reach or exceed two million votes - more than twice the turnout in the 2004 primary. One Ohio labor official, who is unaligned with any campaign, summed up the uncertainties: "Is Ohio going to go like the rest of the country or will it be its typical conservative self...
...Possibly the biggest X-factor in the game for the Big Red, though, didn’t come on the court...