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...addition to superdelegates, there are not-so-super, regular “delegates.” These are the John Does and Jane Smiths whom Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have been publicly battling for across the country. Votes are collected in Democratic caucuses and primaries and candidates are awarded “delegates” based on how many votes they receive. These delegates arrive in Denver on Aug. 28 and vote for either Senator Obama or Senator Clinton, depending on which candidate won their district. Whichever candidate receives at least 2,025 votes at the convention becomes...
...this ever-so-special year, every vote in Denver will count. As of today, Barack Obama has won 986 delegates, and Hillary Clinton 924, according to CNN. If Virginia, Ohio, Texas, Pennsylvania, and Indiana vote as expected over the coming months, the margin will remain razor-thin and the nomination could be decided by how superdelegates vote. Democrats might even have a Bush-Gore disaster on their hands: Obama could win more regular delegates than Clinton, but because of Clinton’s close connections with superdelegates, she could win the nomination anyway...
Pundits may well marvel that, for once, participants in Tuesday's D.C., Maryland and Virginia Democratic Potomac Primaries will be casting votes that "actually matter," but yesterday's results among Republicans show that even if a party's nomination is all sewn up, votes can still matter quite a lot. John McCain's losses in Kansas and Louisiana - and his narrow win in Washington State - suggest that, at the very least, the Republican Party will not be able to begin preparing for the general election as soon as leaders would like. At worst, Mike Huckabee's insistence on staying...
Huckabee has little chance of actually winning the nomination. He would have to win each one of the next primary contests with better than 50% of the vote just to keep McCain short of the 1,191 delegates needed to nab the G.O.P. nod. And even then, it is unlikely that a brokered convention would work out in his favor. Remember, the only Republican whom traditional conservative leaders distrust more than McCain is Mike Huckabee. (This distrust might stem from Huckabee's independence from traditional conservative organizations; the Club for Growth's opprobrium means little to his loose coalition...
Even if McCain was by temperament a coalition-builder, unifying the G.O.P. would be less of a challenge in the fall than simply getting them out of the house. A dispirited Republican electorate might vote out of anger against Hillary, but they won't vote out of enthusiasm for McCain. And Obama voters will be nothing if not enthusiastic. For all the strengths he brings to a November election - and his independence from the G.O.P. base is one of them - in this strange convergence of events, it now seems like the triumph of a Hillary-aligned Democratic establishment...