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...what happens? The demand for existing Managers--let alone new ones--declines as New Enterprise becomes Mature Business, thereby restricting the upward mobility of skilled and semi-skilled workers. The fall-off in the introduction of New Enterprise in turn means few new jobs are created in the Labor class itself, which limits the upward mobility of those in the Underemployed class...

Author: By Mark C. Frazier, | Title: An Answer From the Computer--Why Urban Programs Backfire | 10/18/1971 | See Source »

...economically justifiable, the deadly flow of Premium and Worker Housing to the Underemployed category resumes. Eventually, after the cycle has completed several ever-decreasing rotations, a condition of equilibrium is reached with the surrounding environment. It is an equilibrium characterized by very low levels of New Enterprise (and the upward job mobility which accompanies it for all classes) and by large numbers of the Underemployed. The city is stagnating indefinitely...

Author: By Mark C. Frazier, | Title: An Answer From the Computer--Why Urban Programs Backfire | 10/18/1971 | See Source »

...concerns a job-creation program, in which public works jobs are opened up to the underemployed and-or transportation is given them for jobs located outside the city. This program has two substantial effects in Forrester's model--raising the number of jobs relative to Workers, which increases the upward mobility of the Underemployed, and vastly swelling migration of the Underemployed to the city. Having plenty of excess Underemployed Housing around to absorb large numbers of immigrants, the city winds up with the same sort of problem in the end, but on a larger scale. In addition, because Underemployed require...

Author: By Mark C. Frazier, | Title: An Answer From the Computer--Why Urban Programs Backfire | 10/18/1971 | See Source »

...however--like the last--are almost entirely consumed by in-migration. Moreover, the increased number of those in the Labor class makes crowding in Worker Housing more severe, competition for jobs tighter, and the prospect of leaving the city more attractive for Labor. So, despite a small increase in upward mobility and New Enterprise, he concludes that even a perfect job-training program would be of questionable value to the city...

Author: By Mark C. Frazier, | Title: An Answer From the Computer--Why Urban Programs Backfire | 10/18/1971 | See Source »

...financial aid, or revenue sharing. Forrester assumes the new revenue goes to programs which have some positive effects on the life of the Underemployed--either through better schools, better health care, welfare, etc.--while at the same time not reducing the local tax burden. Largely because of better education, upward mobility for the Underemployed does rise. But the positive results of the program are again negated by the influx of underemployed to the city. Over a fifty year period, the ratio of Underemployed to available jobs rises by 9 per cent and the total population of Underemployed goes up eight...

Author: By Mark C. Frazier, | Title: An Answer From the Computer--Why Urban Programs Backfire | 10/18/1971 | See Source »

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