Word: turnout
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...posters. Capitalizing on Ohio's early-voting law, it has organized van rides to shuttle students, low-income residents and even homeless voters to the early polling station downtown. One Obama aide says the campaign needs socially conservative whites on the East Side, but adds, "We're expecting record turnout among African Americans...
There is one other piece of drama unfolding here: election officials are preparing for a wild Nov. 4, with turnout rates that could reach 80%. Sally Krisel, Hamilton County's director of elections, has ordered new machines and plans to set up extra tables with privacy screens if the booths reach capacity. "I even ordered extra clipboards," says Krisel. "If we get really jammed, we'll stick ballots on clipboards and start handing those out." So for anyone looking to predict the outcome in Ohio this year, forget exit polls and anecdotal reports--but pay attention to whether those clipboards...
...Florida does hold some good news for McCain and the Republicans in the run-up to Tuesday. The GOP is certainly behind in early-voter turnout, but its registered voters have mailed in more than 15% more absentee ballots than the Democrats have. (Republicans also requested far more of Florida's 1.6 million absentee ballots, about 793,000, compared with 573,000 for Democrats.) It's a big reason that despite the Democrats' large early-voter lead, the party holds only about a 6-point edge over the GOP in Florida, on the basis of the party that early voters...
...broader small-d democratic benefit of early voting is supposed to be higher overall turnout. But analysts say the practice hasn't been around long enough to draw conclusions. The same holds for the widely held notion inside the parties - especially among Democrats, who are assumed to gain more from higher turnout than the GOP does - that early voting is an insurance policy against low voter turnout on Election...
...minutes in Sarasota, Florida, on Thursday with Barack Obama's top strategist David Axelrod. Standing on a minor league baseball field as the Illinois senator delivered his closing argument to 13,000 screaming fans, Axelrod talked about his favorite campaign moments, the things he's worried about (low turnout) and the things he's not (racism) and why his excitement comes with a touch of sadness. Here is a transcript of our conversation...