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When it comes to evaluating risks, both ordinary people and policymakers tend to be wildly inefficient. Remember that in the 1970s, intelligence officials, preoccupied with communism, discounted the threat posed by Islamic fundamentalism. The lesson: Ignored threats often pose more serious threats to global stability than the fears du jour. So with SARS and terrorism now dominating headlines and our worry space, it's worth pondering what threats have been squeezed out. The recent bad winter suggests one strong candidate for consideration: the threat of rapid climate change...
That gets to the second reason why President Bush couldn’t build a “hegemonic” empire of subject-states: Voters wouldn’t stand for it. We Americans tend to be an inward-looking bunch, wary of expending blood and treasure on overseas adventures that are unrelated to national security. As military historian Victor Davis Hanson emphasizes, U.S. power is ultimately not restrained by “China, Russia, or the European Union, but rather by the American electorate itself—whose reluctant worries are chronicled weekly by polls that are eyed...
...tend to find great strength in characters who are not easily accepted by society, considered marginal in some way,” she says...
...does not answer the basic question of how the two sides are to get past their inability to resolve the security standoff. The Bush administration had insisted on Abbas's confirmation as the precondition for publishing the document, but Israeli security chiefs and Palestinian political analysts tend to share a pessimistic view of the new prime minister's ability to rein in terror attacks. Palestinian security structures are in disarray, Abbas faces considerable domestic opposition even from within his own organization, and Yasser Arafat doesn't exactly have a vested interest in seeing the new prime minister succeed...
Most theme trips are put together either by cruise lines, which tend to reserve an entire ship for the theme, or by travel agents, who book their own groups for a particular specialty. Each November, Provident Travel of Cincinnati, Ohio, organizes a one-week Caribbean cruise with Royal Caribbean International that features current and former Cincinnati Reds. About 160 to 200 die-hard fans, average age 60, put up $1,200 to $1,800 (this includes airfare) to hobnob with the pinstripers, says Jim Mogan, Provident's director of operations. Charles Hindersman, 77, a retired professor and university vice president...