Word: tehran
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...Iraq beginning to draw down, the government in Baghdad has made it clear that it will evict the MEK, though not to Iran. (Iraqi troops forced their way into the MEK's camp north of Baghdad on July 28.) Given the decline of the MEK's fortunes in Iraq, Tehran seems to have decided in late 2008 that the al-Qaeda commanders under house arrest had lost their value as bargaining chips. Several of them, including Saad bin Laden, appear to have been taken to the border with Pakistan and released. For Saad, however, freedom lasted only a few weeks...
...will likely spread to nearby alleyways and narrow streets, the type of urbanscape where Basij often corner protesters (there are no sweeping boulevards nearby like Enqelab or Revolution Street). "It's too dangerous [to join the demonstration]," says an office manager who works in a tony neighborhood in north Tehran. "Just not worth it for me to go." (Read about how Iran's leaders are battling over Ayatullah Khomeini's legacy...
Among a dozen likely protesters interviewed in Tehran, most of whom were recent university students, the picture that emerged was one of intense dissatisfaction with the theocratic regime, a system forcing its strict religious codes on a progressively more secular youth population. But many of them do not desire regime change or welcome the violence that would surround such a revolution. Many recall that their parents suffered through such chaos in the run-up to the 1979 Islamic revolution (coincidentally fueled by gatherings commemorating the 40-day anniversaries of those killed in street clashes). Nor do today's young protesters...
...case, a sidelined Ahmadinejad would further radicalize the executive branch of the regime. Khamenei has shown in the aftermath of June 12 that he will not compromise with the reformists (although earlier this week, under intense opposition pressure, he ordered a prison housing political dissidents in south Tehran to be shuttered). There is thus little hope that a decommissioned Ahmadinejad would leave room for a compromise replacement who could defuse the postelection crisis; a coup would in all likelihood further fuel the opposition and throw the country into further chaos...
...Soltan, whose last moments were captured on video, which circulated around the world. The regime has been deeply concerned about the commemoration of her death. Similar 40-day anniversaries in 1979 fueled the unrest that led to the ouster of the Shah and onset of the Islamic revolution. (Read "Tehran Braces for Another Day of Street Battles...