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...figure for the first quarter. If one or both of these is "better than expected" stocks may climb even higher. Over the last six months, these figures have usually been worse than analysts have forecast and there is not much in the way of anecdotal data to support anything other than the fact that figures will keep getting worse. The most important bellwether for economic activity may be the rate of contraction in manufacturing. In the U.S., those numbers are bad. In parts of Asia and Europe the figures are much worse. If the American consumer was showing any signs...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Why the Market Rally Is Like Waiting for Godot | 3/24/2009 | See Source »

...news of the next two years priced into it. That is, at least, what the current buyers are saying. All of the high unemployment and poor corporate numbers had been taken into account at the bottom. Under almost any set of circumstances, history would support this analysis. A recession lasts four quarters and then turns into a recovery. (See pictures of TIME's Wall Street covers...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Why the Market Rally Is Like Waiting for Godot | 3/24/2009 | See Source »

...interview Friday, Peter Orszag, Obama's Budget Director, admitted that long-term deficits projected by the CBO "would lead to rising debt-to-GDP ratios in a manner that would ultimately not be sustainable." He was not alone. As soon as the report came out, even Democrats who support the President's policies said that the budget would have to be rethought. "We have got to get back to a more sustainable fiscal circumstance," said Sen. Kent Conrad, the Democratic chairman of the Senate Budget Committee on ABC's This Week. "We cannot have debt pile on top of debt...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Will Deficits Force Obama to Sacrifice His Agenda? | 3/23/2009 | See Source »

...public realm, and the cold-water tone of that answer, may be aimed at a domestic audience, with the purpose of holding the line and preventing the new, more open U.S. posture from causing divisions within Iran's power structure. The fact that Khamenei emphasized Washington's continued "unconditional support" for Israel as among the examples of continued U.S. hostility underscores his domestic political intention. Previous diplomatic initiatives from Iran's leaders suggest that they don't seriously imagine that Washington will alter its support for Israel, but Khamenei, by citing one of the ideological pillars of the Islamic Revolution...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Obama's Overture to Iran: Why Khamenei Won't Budge | 3/23/2009 | See Source »

...Iran is the key to changing its behavior in the nuclear standoff but that those penalties should be tied to a diplomatic outreach that includes more incentives and allows Tehran to back down without being humiliated. (They've also argued that such outreach will help the U.S. win support from reluctant allies for harsher measures should Iran fail to respond positively.) So, even as Obama courts the Iranians with talk of a new relationship, the U.S. is keeping existing sanctions in place and moving to win support for sterner measures - for example, by offering concessions to Russia on other issues...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Obama's Overture to Iran: Why Khamenei Won't Budge | 3/23/2009 | See Source »

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