Word: southernization
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...commanded from the top. Few could understand why Olmert finally decided to launch a massive ground campaign - just 48 hours before the cease-fire took effect - inwhich over a dozen soldiers were killed and scores more wounded. Israel said it will start withdrawing troops from hard-fought positions inside southern Lebanon within the next 10 days, once U.N. forces arrive. Meanwhile, Olmert has reportedly approved negotiations to exchange the two captive Israel soldiers for Lebanese prisoners, a step, perhaps, that might have avoided this short and brutal war in the first place. --with reporting by Aaron J. Klein/Jerusalem
...negotiations between Israel and the Lebanese government on behalf of Hizballah, and the resultant deal will inevitably involve some kind of prisoner exchange. The soldiers' fate appears unlikely, however, to hold up the cease-fire. Within days, Lebanese Army troops (eventually numbering 15,000) will begin moving into southern Lebanon, later supported by a beefed-up U.N. peacekeeping force (which will also number 15,000), as Israel vacates the area. Hizballah has agreed to the truce in which it ends attacks on Israel and refrains from bearing arms south of the Litani River. Issues ranging from the fate...
...While the truce certainly restricts Hizballah's military activities in southern Lebanon, it falls substantially short of the initial Israeli goal of crushing Hizballah as a military entity and prompting the rest of Lebanese society to turn against the organization because of the destruction by Israel that its actions provoked. Hizballah defined success as its forces simply surviving the Israeli onslaught intact, and exacting a substantial price from the Israelis for their offensive. The U.S. endorsed Israel's objectives - viewing Hizballah as nothing more than a proxy for Iran and Syria - and sought diplomatic cover for Israel by rallying Arab...
...only has Hizballah survived very much intact as a military force; it was able to inflict substantial military and civilian casualties on Israel right until the truce came into effect. Most important, talk of preventing Hizballah's "return" is moot, because it was never actually driven from southern Lebanon, where many of its fighters remain active despite the presence of some 20,000 Israeli troops in their midst. Israel's more realistic goal, of course, was to eliminate the rocket threat on its northern border. The extent to which that has been achieved remains to be seen: Hizballah was firing...
...voluntarily abiding by the cease-fire, but it is doing so very much on its own terms. Not only is it refusing to even discuss disarming right now, it appears to be reaching an agreement with the Lebanese government under which it would refrain from displaying its weapons in southern Lebanon and effectively keep them hidden. And right now, neither the Israelis nor the Lebanese Army nor the mooted U.N. force appears to have any intention of forcibly disarming the movement...