Word: sohn
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...four other panelists were Ken Goldstein, labor economist for the Conference Board; Sung Won Sohn, chief economist for Wells Fargo Banks in Minneapolis, Minn.; William Spriggs, director of the National Urban League's Institute of Opportunity and Equality; and Diane Swonk, chief economist for Bank One in Chicago. They all agreed that job growth will remain anemic this year, with unemployment hovering around 5.6% to 5.8% and falling slowly even as other economic indicators regain strength. Our panel expects payroll growth to rise from 50,000 in July to, optimistically, 125,000 by December--compared with 400,000 a month...
...SOHN: I view productivity as the linchpin driving this economy. Economic growth comes from two sources: No. 1 is labor hours; the other is productivity...
...SOHN: We don't need as many people to produce widgets, cars, whatever, because of productivity gains. Initially in the 1990s and early 2000, we had productivity gains from manufacturing high-tech equipment or even low-tech equipment. Now we are getting gains coming from the application of that equipment. Employers are also very cautious--look at overtime, which is going up. They don't want to hire people. They would rather employ technology and work people harder...
...SOHN: Corporate profits come from two sources: volume and margins. The volume is going up not that rapidly, so it must be margins. Why are margins going up? Are they raising prices? No. Cutting wages? No. It is coming once again from the productivity gains. If you look at the unit labor cost, meaning the cost to produce each dollar of sales, it fell in the third quarter, fell in the fourth quarter and then again in the first quarter into the second quarter. I think that is another reason margins are rising, supporting corporate profits...
...Elena S. Schoenberger ’02, Brian Shillinglaw ’01-’02, Alec Nevala-Lee ’02, Rob T. Dennis ’02, Melissa M. Gniadek ’02, Benjamin W. Jarvis ’02, Timothy F. Sohn ’02 and John Chia-An Tsou...