Word: slowdowns
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Dates: during 1990-1999
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...lost 101,000 jobs in May. The month before witnessed the third decline in a row in the index of leading economic indicators, which is used to forecast economic conditions six to nine months from now-when Campaign '96 will be well under way. "This is a pretty sizable slowdown," observes economist Victor Zarnowitz of Columbia University. "In many ways it resembles past slowdowns that have become recessions...
...factor that will spell the difference between slowdown and recession is sustained consumer confidence and spending. A decline could prompt businesses to cut back production even more, leading to more cuts in the work force and a further fall in consumer spending -- the vicious cycle that drives a recession. In surveys, confidence still looks solid, but beneath is an enduring anxiety about wage stagnation and job security. With any additional sign of a serious downturn, consumer confidence could collapse like a nervous smile...
...rates seven times since February 1994. Most economists thought the hikes could reduce growth to a more sustainable 2% to 3% this year and thereby create a "soft landing" that would forestall inflation. But some forecasters now fear that a far more painful pullback could be at hand. "The slowdown is very clear and quite dramatic," says Laurence Meyer, an economic consultant in St. Louis, Missouri. "The question now is whether all this is a prelude to a recession...
...York City investment firm. "Most of the growth in this business cycle is behind us. Fed policy will have an important bearing on how the economy pans out the rest of the year." Concurs Robert Brusca, chief economist for Nikko Securities: "It looks, smells and tastes like a slowdown. Common sense should reinforce this view...
Growing inventories have plagued retailers too since they stocked up in anticipation of a strong Christmas season. December sales fell 0.1% from the level of November, even though stores slashed prices to lure shoppers. "The most impressive evidence of a slowdown in the economy is the weakness in retail sales," says Lacy Hunt, chief economist for HSBC Securities. "Retailers are terribly overstocked despite the massive discounting." That is partly because rising interest rates have been making it more costly for already overburdened consumers to borrow and spend. Americans took out a hefty $120 billion in new loans last year, increasing...