Word: shifting
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...American base represents, talk of a redeployment sent shudders through parts of the "old" Europe and thrills through the "new" Europe in the east. But those fears and hopes may prove exaggerated. The changes, Pentagon officials say, will begin happening over the next two years and likely will shift heavy armored forces out of Germany. Many Western bases will stay open; others will be consolidated with nato or local forces. In the east, the U.S. is looking to establish less permanent facilities that can be geared up or down depending on requirements - which may not prove the economic windfall that...
...Rumsfeld was the first to see after 9/11 that security could be defined broadly and could be used to justify almost anything," says John Hamre, a Deputy Defense Secretary under Clinton and now president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "He was the first to realize the shift of power in Washington from the Congress back to the Executive Branch. No one moved so spectacularly, so systematically at a time when everyone else was just confused and scared. Remember: when the plane attacked the Pentagon, Rumsfeld ran toward the accident. He is very perceptive in the midst...
...even after 9/11 changed everything, it didn't change Rumsfeld's zeal to reform or the essential outlines of his plan. Some of his ideas are very specific. He is weighing whether to move U.S. military bases out of Western Europe now that the cold war is over and shift forces east to Poland and Romania to be closer to the hot spots of the Middle East. He has asked the Navy whether its constant presence in, for example, the Mediterranean makes it harder to steam quickly to conflicts elsewhere. He wants the Air Force to think less about pilots...
That doesn't mean you can't make money in stocks. Other analysts are more bullish, and even Levkovich believes that some sectors will do well. He expects around midyear a massive shift out of economically sensitive cyclical stocks like technology and basic materials (Alcoa, Dow Chemical, International Paper) into defensive stocks like drugs, foods and beverages. Why? Defensive stocks, which are less vulnerable to the ups and downs of the economy, lagged badly in '03, rising just 8% on average. They now look relatively cheap next to tech (up 40%) and basic materials (up 30%). And as it becomes...
...Busch. Fund investors won't find a lot of managers who have invested in these laggards; most funds are playing the cyclical theme, which could work a while yet. But Exeter Tax Managed and AmSouth Select Equity funds are loaded with consumer-goods stocks, making certain that when the shift comes, they'll be ready...