Word: sectored
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Nevertheless, this rosy picture has blemishes. Private-sector savings in the U.S. have hit a historic low: -4% of gross domestic product, according to Hormats. "This private-sector deficit is enormous," he says. People feel flush enough, due to their soaring stock portfolios, to keep buying consumer goods on credit--the so-called "wealth effect." But a drop in the Dow Jones index or some other shock could quickly erase those paper gains and choke off the spending boom. So while the Clinton Administration is touting consumption-driven growth, Dresdner Bank's Ernst-Moritz Lipp is critical. "We shouldn...
...Lipp forecasts Europe's performance in 1999, mainly because European companies "are in one of their strongest positions in the past decade." Moreover, the arrival of Europe's new currency, the euro, will lead to further productivity-enhancing mergers and acquisitions. "What will emerge is a completely integrated corporate sector," gaining momentum in the next few years. But the process may take a decade to complete...
Thailand, Korea and Indonesia have stopped reforming their banks and other instruments of "crony capitalism," says Courtis, but are still managing to claw back toward growth by a simple strategy: "You crush domestic demand, you crush your currency, so imports collapse and everything goes to the export sector." A year ago, he explains, Korea had zero foreign exchange reserves; today it has $48 billion, equal to 12% of GNP. Thailand's are at 11% of GNP. But this strategy depends crucially on boosting exports to developed countries, particularly the U.S., which will hang on choices made in Washington...
...Harvard, "there's no bottom fishing at any price. It doesn't make sense if after you've gotten there you get squeezed and discover you have no rights." Moscow is finally pushing an agreement to share energy revenues with foreign companies that are desperately needed to develop this sector, but that still won't undo the baleful effect of low world oil prices. "Sixty percent of Russia's export earnings come from oil and gas," says Goldman. "As long as world commodity prices stay low, there's no way they're going to get themselves out of this hole...
...leathernecks now on ships floating in the Mediterranean would be the first wave to chopper into Kosovo. They'd be part of a 4,000-strong U.S. presence in a NATO peacekeeping force of 28,000. Red lines are even being drawn on maps. American G.I.s would control a sector of Kosovo. British, French, German and Italian forces would carve up other sectors. But no NATO soldiers will set foot in the province if the Serbs and ethnic Albanians there don't agree to end a yearlong war that has left more than 1,500 dead and 250,000 homeless...