Word: sectored
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...August, and the last day before the three-day Labor Day weekends puts the kibosh on this turgid trading summer and brings the real money back from the Hamptons and into play. July factory orders and the Chicago Purchasing Managers' manufacturing report for August are expected to show that sector in continuing decline, though there's some hope that the trend is headed back up to zero after last week's durable goods number. Dare we look for another Friday pop? Well, on a day likely to be peppered with statistics showing this August to be the worst for equities...
...Also on Tuesday, more goat entrails from the chip sector, with the trade group Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (yes, that spells SEMI) announces its July book-to-bill ratio. Watch Intel (whose expected 54-percent price cut on is high-end chips is due on Sunday) and AMD for meaning; analyst sentiment on the sector remains mixed...
...long rates to be chopped now, something would have to shoot holes in the perception that the economy has hit bottom. More bad news from manufacturers? Nah, that sector is already comatose. But if housing suddenly stumbles, the bond market might rethink all this nascent-recovery stuff and finally give us the lower long-term rates that could make a difference...
...Earthbound home prices alone could put a further psychological damper on consumers who are already forsaking Macy?s for Wal-Mart; a slowdown in home sales tends to have a wider and more tangible effect. Housing is known as an "umbrella" sector, because a new home generally comes with other new stuff, from renovations and additions to washers, dryers and home entertainment. In other words, much of the seemingly quixotic summer strength in consumer spending grew out of the housing sector, and the housing sector may be about to cool...
...rarely taketh away without a little giveth to go with it, and there?s one upside to a housing chill. Those bond traders might become convinced that the sky is falling and stop worrying about inflation - bringing mortgage rates back down and putting some fuel back into the housing sector and some refi money back into consumers? pockets...