Word: saigon
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Despite Thieu's optimism, it was increasingly clear that the allies had suffered serious losses during the 45-day operation. U.S. intelligence men in Saigon privately confirmed recent reports that the 22,000 ARVN troops committed to Lam Son had suffered close to 50% casualties. Hanoi's forces had been hit hard, too, in terms of supplies that never made it down the Ho Chi Minh Trail, as well as casualties. The official, and probably inflated, Saigon estimate stands at 13,863 dead. White House officials maintain that the North Vietnamese are "at the edge of an abyss...
Political Alchemy. In 1968, then Harvard Professor Henry Kissinger wrote that the best the U.S. could expect after withdrawing its troops would be for Saigon to survive for "a decent interval"-two or three years. Since then, South Viet Nam's military machine has grown to brobdingnagian proportions. Saigon's air force should rank seventh in size in the world (50 squadrons, some 1,200 aircraft) when its Vietnamization is completed by 1974 or 1975. Its local and regular ground forces and navy, already 90% to 95% trained and equipped, will reach their full...
Korean Solution. Doubts persist about whether a costly and complex American-style army will ultimately be an asset or a liability for Saigon. The South Vietnamese may be hard put to maintain such a force. Moreover, some analysts still argue that the only way to peace in South Viet Nam is a negotiated settlement with Hanoi, which probably could be brought about only through some kind of coalition government in Saigon. A vast army, and the tough, militarist regime that would inevitably go with it, would make such an outcome virtually impossible. The alternative, which might please both Saigon...
...paper currently making the rounds in Washington, Guy Pauker, the Rand Corp's leading Southeast Asia specialist, maintains that the treasure the U.S. has pumped into South Viet Nam over the past five years has quietly accomplished a "feat of political alchemy" by transforming a weak Saigon government into a strong regime with a clear chance of surviving. Pauker says that this chance can become a certainty if the U.S. will pick up the bills for at least a decade-not only for the regime's army, but also for an economic-aid program aimed at giving...
More for Less. The U.S. would also have to accept a prospect that many Americans would find unhappy: spending more without getting much operational control of the regime. A non-Communist regime in Saigon would of course represent a sharp defeat for Hanoi and, indirectly, for Peking. Therefore North Viet Nam could be counted on to continue throwing everything it has against the South. In such circumstances, American money alone probably would not be enough to support the Saigon regime. U.S. air power, which propped up the South Vietnamese in Laos, and other support would probably be required...