Word: saigon
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Thieu's long-range prospects are uncertain. There could easily be a resurgence of dissent, especially if the military situation continues to deteriorate. Any major cutback of American aid would obviously damage his position. But it might also encourage the non-Communist opposition in Saigon to work toward setting up a new government more willing to reach a negotiated settlement of the war. It is difficult to predict what the outcome would be. Certainly, the Communists would be influential in any kind of coalition government that might arise; they may well dominate it. That result would hardly please...
Nonetheless, Thieu seems in no imminent danger of falling. Saigon still firmly controls over 50% and partially controls another 40% of the South Vietnamese population. Despite the desertions and casualties, ARVN still has an imposing numerical superiority over the Communists (850,000 troops...
Economically, too, Saigon has shown some surprising strength in recent months. True, the rate of inflation has been running at around 40% a year, while soaring oil costs have resulted in a gaping foreign trade deficit. But a strict austerity program for petroleum and a cutback on imports has reduced the outflow of foreign exchange. More important, South Viet Nam in 1975 should become a net rice exporter for the first time since...
...devastatingly effective anti-government Buddhist protests of the 1960s. Last month Thieu jailed 19 journalists and closed five opposition newspapers; for the moment, his crackdown seems to have silenced the opposition movement. His government's increasingly hostile treatment of the foreign press brought tragedy last week when the Saigon police ordered Agence France-Presse Correspondent Paul Leandri to National Police Headquarters to discuss a story. Leandri resented the interrogation, attempted to get away in his car, and was shot and killed...
South Viet Nam poses a more difficult problem for U.S. policymakers. Implicit in the nature of the U.S. withdrawal at the time of the Paris Accords was the assumption that the U.S. could no longer guarantee the existence of a non-Communist government in Saigon, no matter how desirable that might be. Still there is a case for maintaining a reasonable amount of U.S. economic aid to South Viet Nam over the next several years because a very special relationship exists between the two countries. The temptation to cut off all military aid at once is strong. It would...