Word: rise
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...decision on whether to list China as a "currency manipulator" - long a dream of protectionists in Congress - China is sending signals that it will soon allow its currency, the renminbi, to appreciate. "The Chinese know very well it's in their own interest to allow the RMB to rise a bit," a source close to Treasury in Washington said just before Geithner's surprise Beijing trip. "But they weren't going to be browbeaten into it." (See pictures of the making of modern China...
...Both politically and economically speaking, this gets it about right. The reason it's in China's economic interest to allow the RMB to rise a bit is plain enough: At a moment when much of the world is still trying to climb out of a disinflationary hole, China's got a burgeoning inflation problem. Prices are rising at about 3% annually now, and it's now got its own real estate bubble to deal with. Cooling things off a bit is clearly the government's priority this year, and a rising currency helps. It makes imports more affordable...
...revaluation in the RMB versus the dollar - something that is not in the cards - will have any significant impact on employment in the U.S. or Europe. Economists differ around the edges of this debate, but most agree that a big employment impact is unlikely given a RMB rise of, say, 10% over the next year or two. "The thread between the two [revaluation and jobs] is very, very thin," says Derek Scissors, an economist at the Heritage Foundation in Washington. "No currency revaluation of any feasible size will create more than a few thousand American jobs.'' (See pictures...
...both Geithner and Wang Qishan well understand, there are other compelling reasons for the RMB to rise. A revaluation will help China rebalance its economy by increasing the attractiveness of imports from everywhere; both developing nations like Vietnam and Thailand, whose own industrial development has been stunted by an undervalued RMB, to traditional manufacturing powers like Japan and South Korea will all likely benefit. That fact might not win votes in rust belt America - and the U.S. Congress may be only temporarily appeased - but it is a fact: The global economy desperately needs China to pull more weight...
...Following Thaksin's ouster, the army clearly has become more involved in politics, despite ceding overt power to elected politicians after little more than a year. It played a key role in Abhisit's rise to the premiership, helping to broker deals among politicians who had been loyal to Thaksin so they would join Abhisit's coalition. The generals also used their troops to break up Red Shirt riots in April 2009 in Bangkok aimed at ousting Abhisit. Among the military's rewards have been large increases in budget allocations under Abhisit's administration and few questions about purchasing irregularities...