Word: problems
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...problem is twofold. First, it's hard to predict the future. Second, it's really hard to predict the future when so many parts of the economy are in flux. "This has been an extraordinarily difficult period for forecasters," says Harvard economist James Stock. "Our models aren't really designed for predicting massive changes." Philip Joyce, a professor of public policy and administration at George Washington University, figures that in normal times, budget projections a couple of years out tend to be pretty reliable, at five years less so and at 10 years not much at all. "But these aren...
...fundamental problem is that economic models - series of equations meant to describe how different parts of the economy fit together - depend on historical data. If you want to know how high unemployment is going to be six months from now, you start with how high it is today. If the economy isn't stable and the old relationships don't hold as well as they used to, then the models break down. In recent years, there have been great advances in economic modeling, says Stock, but forecasts haven't necessarily gotten much better since the economy itself has grown more...
...Lowdown: For states with otherwise strong school systems, these striking findings should serve as a wake-up call that not all students are thriving in their classrooms. Tallying data on the achievement gap is crucial to diagnosing the problem, but making real progress will require understanding the source of such persistent disparities and discovering meaningful remedies. On those subjects, unfortunately, the report is silent...
...admits that there are gaps in the accounts it published but says the testimonies nonetheless question the credibility of the IDF official account. The group suggests that the killing of civilians was not simply a product of individual mistakes or "delinquent" soldiers but that they resulted from a "systemic problem...
...many in the human-rights community doubt the will of the government to solve the murder of one so committed to unearthing crimes committed by the Kremlin. For Medvedev, Estemirova's killing represents a twofold problem. It brings into ever-increasing doubt the claims he made when elected last year that he would restore the rule of law in Russia, and it highlights the rising level of violence in the North Caucasus, where the Kremlin has backed Kadyrov in a mostly successful effort to quell fighting in Chechnya. Now the methods of Kadyrov, and those of the Kremlin, have been...