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...predict the course a crisis will take. But if you are a highly leveraged fund precariously perched as these dominos fall - as Goldman's are today and as LTCM was in 1998 - you become part of the game. And if you are both highly leveraged and big, the problem that started in one insignificant little segment will now become your problem, and a much bigger one. Again, it's all about leverage. This is the case for crises in the past and will be the case for crises in the future. A world in which highly leveraged hedge funds share...
...rate hike would likely only increase the flow of speculative "hot money" into the country from abroad, says Jing Ulrich, chairman of China equities at JP Morgan. And excess liquidity (read: too much money chasing too few goods) is at least partly to blame for China's rising-prices problem. Although some say the July spike was due to short-term food shortages, the increases "are a lot less temporary than some people think," argues Michael Pettis, a professor of finance at Peking University. "China is now exhibiting nearly all the expected consequences of excess money - explosive lending growth, asset...
DENVER IS JUST ONE PIN ON THE NATIONAL map. Looking across the country, the foreclosure problem is worst in areas where house prices went wildest (southern Florida, California), where local economies are depressed (Cleveland, Detroit) and where regulators paid little attention during the go-go years (before a new law took effect in January, mortgage brokers in Colorado didn't have to be registered). But it is important to point out that while Colorado has one of the nation's highest foreclosure rates, according to property tracker RealtyTrac, many parts are doing just fine. Prices in Denver's newly...
...risk) to sell to investors. Many such securities carry AAA or "investment grade" ratings despite subprime mortgages being in the mix. From there, things get really complex--CDOs created from other CDOs, synthetic CDOs crafted from credit-default swaps, none of which had experienced a down market. "The problem is that CDOs were untested. There was not much history to suggest CDOs would behave the same way as AAA corporate bonds," says Richard Bookstaber, a hedge-fund manager and author of A Demon of Our Own Design, who views market palpitations as a predictable by-product of complex financial products...
...says housing economist Thomas Lawler, "is a slow, tedious process." In July, after the two Bear Stearns hedge funds first ran into trouble, bond guru Bill Gross of Pimco wrote a foreboding investment outlook, pointing out that hedge funds tied up in trading are the top layer of the problem, not the root. That can be demonstrated in the Mile High City and, as Gross wrote, "in the Summerlin suburbs of Las Vegas, Nevada, and in the extended city limits of Chicago headed west towards Rockford, and yes, the naked (and empty) rows of multistoried condos in Miami, Florida...