Word: prices
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...rich countries the slump has come at a bad time. As the oil price began rising during the past few years, governments and big oil companies plowed billions into exploring and developing new fields in Russia, Angola, Mexico, Brazil and Saudi Arabia - projects whose costs have more than doubled in the past few years, in part because soaring steel prices drove up drilling equipment costs and oil-rig rentals. Just as global demand has begun to slow, millions more barrels of oil a day from new fields have hit the world market...
...nervous. Many are still haunted by a disastrous error made at an Opec meeting in Jakarta in 1999, when the cartel - which produces more than a third of the world's oil - opted to raise its production levels. Within weeks Asian stock markets tumbled, driving world oil prices down to $11 a barrel. Oil officials in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere have cited that price crash as the reason they've rebuffed pleas from President Bush to pump more oil. Says Benali: "Countries have learned the lessons of the past...
Though oil-producers and environmentalists rarely agree about anything, both groups have done extremely well from sky-high oil prices during the past year. The high price at U.S. gas pumps has pushed both Barack Obama and John McCain into making the development of alternative fuels and electric cars key elements of their campaign platforms. But if gas prices continue to drop, those initiatives might begin to seem unnecessarily costly to many Americans. (Time's Bryan Walsh reported this week that some countries are already reviewing environmental initiatives as gas prices fall.) "If gas prices drop under $3 a gallon...
...producers have their way, oil prices could start rising again. Their growing anxiety erupted early this week, when Iranian and Venezuelan officials warned that if Opec waited much longer before cutting its output, it could face another massive price collapse. On Thursday, Opec officials scheduled an emergency meeting in Vienna for Nov. 18 rather than wait until the cartel's scheduled summit in Algiers in early December. In the meantime, the world's biggest oil producer, Saudi Arabia - which increased production in the summer - has already begun loading less oil on its tankers, according to global oil figures...
...greater than an economic recession: political turmoil. Iran, which earns 80% of its revenues from oil exports, set this year's budget on the assumption that oil would trade at $90 a barrel - a figure which seemed conservatively low until recently, but which is now above the world price. "If the price stays there a while Iran would cut spending," Priddy says. That might include cutting heavy gas subsidies for Iranian drivers, who have rioted in the past when the government tried to ration gas or raise the price at the pump. Hugo Chavez could face similar problems in Venezuela...