Word: prediction
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...difference between conditions in Saudi Arabia and Iran helps explain why the entire crescent can be so difficult to understand and predict. Unlike the Shah, a stern, remote and isolated figure, the huge Saudi ruling family, with its estimated 5,000 princes, has its roots in the lives of its people. Its members are married into the families of commoners all over the country. They take their places in the chain of command below nonroyal superiors in the civil service. Saudi rulers take their "desert democracy" seriously: even the lowliest citizen can approach King Khalid or Crown Prince Fahd with...
...scientific methods of forecasting economics-so says one of the foremost prophets, Boston Econometrician Otto Eckstein-produce results with errors only 35% to 40% smaller than those arising from careful guesstimating. Perhaps unnecessarily, Eckstein adds: "There's plenty of room for humility." The humbling failure of scientists to predict surely either the course of nature (as in the weather) or cultural dynamics (as in economic and social change) may be one factor that licenses the numberless irrational prophets who proliferate in today's age of ostensible reason...
Khomeini also said United States military bases "could not remain in Iran because they are contrary to Iranian independence" and refused to predict whether he would send armies against Israel in the event of another Mideast...
...matter how the Shah's latest strategy works out, the episodes in Iran last week again raised disturbing questions about the ability of the U.S. to predict developments in areas vital to its national interest and to devise effective policies for dealing with them. While the situation in Iran deteriorated, Secretary of State Cyrus Vance and his top aides were preoccupied with the Middle East peace talks and SALT negotiations with the Soviet Union. Filling the policy vacuum was Zbigniew Brzezinski, who was almost unopposed in his recommendation that the U.S. must support the Shah without reservation...
Executives at all the auto companies predict that they will meet or exceed the CAFE requirements for this year, although GM and Ford at present are about one-tenth of a mile per gallon off target. They argue, however, that it will be tough to meet future standards, starting from next year's 20 m.p.g. all the way up to the eventual 27.5 m.p.g. demanded by 1985. In this competition, GM will have an important advantage. Because it has more money and management depth, it can more easily meet the standards...