Word: petroleum
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...Minister Adnan Khairallah early on, "it is in fact war." The struggle escalated quickly and as it did, spread to key oil facilities on both sides-Basra, Kirkuk and Mosul in Iraq, Abadan and Kharg island in Iran. With thick black smoke pluming from bombed tank farms and refineries, petroleum-consuming nations around the globe anxiously calculated and then recalculated the implications. Said one U.S. official in tallying up the damage: "Once oil installations became fair game, the stakes became much higher for everyone...
America's petroleum-based lifestyle must change, one way or another. If war in the Middle East does not force that change today, depletion of oil sources will force it before the end of this century. At best, the "Carter doctrine" fails to provide for our nation's energy needs beyond the next few years; should it be tested more seriously than it has been this week, it will become a policy of blood...
Perhaps the greatest obstacle to accurate long range forecasting comes from the increasing possibility of future shocks which cannot be surmised from historical trends. Many petroleum analysts in the mid-'70s predicted world crude oil prices would hit a ceiling at $10 per barrel. Obviously, they did not foresee OPEC's tenacity or the Iranian revolution and subsequent supply disruption. The possibility of another significant oil supply shock within the next five years festered in the imagination of MR&A forecasters. The downfall of the present Saudi Arabian government looms on the horizon: "If CIA reports claiming the Soviet Union...
...talk show hosts began to deploy energy resources as their common sense or ideological beliefs dictated. The female host unabashedly declared her intent to avoid nukes, playing right into Schmidt's hands. When she reached maximum solar and coal capacity, she had no choice but to play the purple petroleum cards on the board. Schmidt grimly pronounced, "Contratulations, you have just tripled the country's dependence on foreign oil." As he relished the indictment, the other hosts hurriedly switched to remove the petroleum onus...
Late last summer, when MR&A met with representatives from Exxon's counterpart group, all the forecasters swapped stories about the energy future. Not surprisingly, the Exxon team perceived abundant demand and supply of petroleum generated through its synthetic fuels program, and less future need for electricity. Exxon's crude oil price forecasts for 1990, already made obsolete by the December 1979 price increases, strained the group's credibility. But the representatives brushed off charges of overly optimistic oil consumption forecasts and continued showing their charts and graphs. No hard feelings, of course: lunch time controversy focused on the dubious...