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...concludes that by the year 2000 oil production in the non-Communist world could fall short of meeting demand by 15 million to 20 million bbl. per day -about as much as the U.S. uses now. Moreover, the shortfall is likely to occur even if coal production doubles, the output of nuclear-generated power multiplies 15 times, conservation measures cut the increase in petroleum demand to half its historic growth rate, and the "real" price of oil (discounted for inflation) rises 50%, further reducing consumption...
...known oil reserves. If the Saudis decide that oil in the ground is more valuable than oil sold on the market, and cap production at the present level of around 9 million bbl. per day, the shortage shows up as early as 1981. If the Saudis more than double output, to 20 million bbl. per day, the shortage is delayed -but only for eight years, to 1989. Even if there is no production limit at all, shortages show up in the late 1990s. And such a delay might not be any boon to consuming nations: because of the long lead...
...investment capital and monetary imbalances caused largely by momentous outflows of funds to member states of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to cover fuel bills. A new index of "composite economic performance" compiled by the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research, combining such measures as gross national income, output, sales and employment, shows that the summit seven as a group have largely regained their pre-recession heights of economic activity (see chart following page). But the progress is erratic. Except for the U.S., only Italy has surpassed its preslump industrial output-and Italy has other grave problems...
WEST GERMANY remains Europe's economic locomotive. It has just about recovered its preslump level of industrial output (97%), and its export performance is awesome; the trade surplus totaled $14 billion in 1976. But unemployment remains high at more than 1 million, or 4.6% of the labor force. Chancellor Helmut Schmidt has forecast a 5% growth rate in 1977, but several reliable economic institutes now expect a shortfall, indicating the need for stimulus. Despite fears of inflation, Schmidt is backing a $7 billion revival program with $1.5 billion to be spent this year...
FRANCE remains a convalescent. Though industrial output had edged upward to 89% of prerecession heights, inflation remains at 10% annually. Unemployment, at more than 1 million, or just below 5% of the labor force, is unacceptably high, providing the Communist-Socialist alliance with ammunition. Refusing to yield to pressures for a major reflation, Premier Raymond Barre now plans to pump only a modest $800 million into the economy during the next year. Businessmen, fearing a victory of the Communist-Socialist alliance in the 1978 elections, are delaying investments...