Word: oil
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...years observers have argued that economic development can be hindered by oil wealth, a phenomenon called the "resource curse." Some, like Prof. Terry Karl of Stanford, say that excess oil exports also impede democratization. Tom Friedman of the New York Times even argues that democratization and the price of oil move in inverse proportion: when the price of oil goes up, he argues, crackdowns on political freedom ensue. Much academic ink has been spilled in pursuit of a model that can accurately link oil wealth and lack of freedom...
...possible to propose a corollary theory: countries that greet American Presidents with the gaudiest displays of oil wealth tend to be the least democratic. In Abu Dhabi, Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed presented Bush with an obscene necklace consisting of a number of increasingly large solid gold stars encrusted with scores of diamonds, rubies and emeralds. Though Bush talked up his "Freedom Agenda" there, his aides dodged questions about the fact that 50% of the country's parliament is appointed by Sheikh Khalifa, who is also the lifetime "President." Saudi Arabia, the most repressive of all the countries Bush visited...
...Bahrain, whose oil ran out a few years ago, all Bush got was a sword dance. Which was charming. It's not as if Bahrain doesn't have money - it just doesn't have obscene amounts of money from oil exports. Not coincidentally democratic reform has moved forward consistently over the last ten years, producing a new constitution and a bicameral parliament. A U.S. ambassador in the region says the relationship between oil wealth and democratic development explains the difference. "Bahrain has a large population that's unemployed and there are debates about resource allocation," he says. "If people...
...simple as oil wealth equaling authoritarianism, let alone democracy fluctuating with the price of oil. The baby steps in Bahrain aren't in league with democratic development elsewhere in the world, and the trends there can hardly be considered permanent. More important, how do you account for oil-rich countries as diverse as Norway, Britain, Malaysia, Indonesia, Mexico and Venezuela? And would the theory apply to oil-rich states in the U.S.? Prof. Karl says oil and democracy don't mix when the black gold dominates a country's exports. "Countries that are most dependent on oil are the least...
...theory is holding up in the Gulf - almost. On the one hand, Saudi Arabia and Iran are not liberalizing, while Bahrain is. The outlier is Dubai. It is diversifying economically as its oil runs out, but has taken almost no steps to democratize. When Bush brought up the "Freedom Agenda" in private talks with Sheikh Mohammad, says National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley...