Word: oil
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...guess what Rainwater did a few weeks ago, right after oil prices topped $129 per bbl. for the first time? "I sold my Chevron," he says. "I sold my ConocoPhillips. I sold my Statoil. I sold my ENSCO. I sold my Pioneer Natural Resources. I sold everything...
This news, disclosed here for the first time, is a big deal. Lots of Wall Streeters--loudest among them the hedge-fund legend George Soros--have been warning lately that speculation has inflated oil prices into a soon-to-pop bubble. But talk is cheap--this is something more. One of the biggest oil winners of the past decade has decided...
...nation struggles to cope with $4-a-gal. gas, what are we to make of Rainwater's decision? Is it a sign that the near doubling of oil prices over the past eight months is about to reverse itself? Does it mean we can all breathe big sighs of relief and go back to gassing up our Hummers with abandon...
...definitely thinks oil prices are due for a fall. That's why he sold. But he makes no claim to having gotten the timing perfect. After he sold out in May and oil kept rising, past $135 per bbl., Rainwater briefly thought he'd made a terrible mistake. The price has since subsided a little, and he has calmed down a little. Still, he says, "It's a call that I've made, but who knows? Who knows if I'm early...
...bigger question is whether the now nine-year-long rise in energy prices is at a definitive end, and to that, Rainwater offers a clearer answer: No way. He began formulating his big oil bet after reading the 1992 book Beyond the Limits, a wonky, statistics-driven--and extremely frightening--follow-up to the famed and controversial 1972 Club of Rome report on resource depletion, The Limits to Growth. Since then he's remained an avid consumer of the more apocalyptic visions (war, global economic collapse) of what could happen as oil production peaks. "This is the first scenario...