Word: oil
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...beast is back - and Asia could be headed into turbulent economic times. Merrill Lynch says that in May, the average inflation rate throughout the region reached nearly 7%, led by spikes in oil and food prices. That was sharply higher than the 2.5% rate in May 2007 - and that's just the regional average. In India, inflation jumped to an 11.6% annual rate in June, according to the latest government figures, the highest in 13 years. In Vietnam, one of Asia's fastest-growing economies, inflation has reached as high as 27% in the past few months...
...challenge is especially difficult because prices are being driven higher largely by a global surge in oil and food prices, which individual governments can do little to control. A barrel of oil today is nearly five times more expensive than it was in 2003; rice prices tripled between January and May alone. "Currently, inflation is not of domestic origin, and it's not as if the government has many instruments in its hands to deal with it," says Marut Sengupta, head of policy at the Confederation of Indian Industry. That problem has left some officials uncertain how to proceed, especially...
...course, inflation is not just a problem in Asia. World Bank President Robert Zoellick recently warned that the world was "entering a danger zone." He called rising food and oil prices a "man-made catastrophe" that could quickly reverse the gains made in overcoming poverty over the past seven years. For now, though, there is more talk than action on the international front, so Asian governments are battling on their own. There are some early signs that anti-inflation measures could pay off. After peaking at a 12-year high in February, inflation in China will begin to taper...
...Oil Speculation In his essay "Oil Follies," Michael Kinsley notes that if President George W. Bush "had used the political gift certificate he was granted on Sept. 11, 2002," he could have "imposed a $1.50-per-gal. (39¢-per-L) 'War on Terror' tax ... People would have screamed with pain, then started adjusting. Demand would have gone down, and today gas would probably be cheaper" [July 7]. How very clever. But Kinsley had a TIME pulpit in 2001. Why didn't he propose this great idea then? How easy it is to be clever in retrospect - though Kinsley seems less...
...need to add one thing to your equation. Oil is traded in U.S. dollars. So a weak dollar allows other countries to buy more oil, which in turn drives the price up. Strengthen the dollar, and make a barrel less attractive. Charles Shields, Knoxville, Tennessee...