Word: oil
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...mayor is known for being critical of Ahmadinejad. The government, Qalibaf says, has missed a "golden opportunity" to leverage skyrocketing oil prices into reform of the heavily state-controlled economy. He defends Iran's nuclear program, denying that it is designed for military purposes, but hints that Ahmadinejad's provocative foreign-policy pronouncements have not furthered Iran's aims. "One can talk to the world in much better ways," he says. In June, President Bush won consideration from European leaders for tougher sanctions on Iran for its refusal to suspend uranium-enrichment activities. Ahmadinejad scoffed, "The enemy cannot do anything...
...Moscow's long-term objectives in Georgia no doubt are to install a friendly government in Tbilisi (it has tried more than once to do that since Georgian independence), keep Georgia out of NATO, stop the flow of arms into Chechnya and take control of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the only important export route from the Caspian that does not pass through Russia. For it is oil that will give Russia all the more leverage over the southern tier...
...that Moscow right now is casting an eye toward Iran, the most direct route to restoring its influence in the Middle East. An Iranian-Russian alliance, Moscow knows, would be an Israeli-American nightmare, not to mention a major headache for the global economy. Russia sitting on Eurasian oil exports and Iran on the Strait of Hormuz would put 22 million bbl. a day under the control of a very unfriendly alliance. Will Moscow try to team up with Tehran...
...question is uncomfortable, Lucas writes correctly, in part because Russia is a huge energy exporter at a moment when demand for oil and gas has skyrocketed, driving prices up and filling the Kremlin's coffers. Eastern and Western Europe are heavily dependent on gas from state-owned giant Gazprom (whose former chairman happens to be Dmitri Medvedev, Putin's puppet President.) Russia's oil exports are critical at a time when the world has no spare capacity for crude. How tough, seriously, can the West be with an aggressive Russia at this moment in history...
Suffice to say that Vladimir Yakunin - and no doubt his friend, the Prime Minister - didn't approve, and that disgraceful moment sticks in his craw to this day. The Russians are back - and they are not buffoons, thank you. Now, oil and gas wealth plus increasing military might are going to right what they perceive as the humiliations of the recent past. The New Cold War, as Ed Lucas writes...