Word: nafta
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...NAFTA is important, however, primarily for reasons going beyond its own economic effects. Its rejection by the U.S. could topple a much bigger domino: a proposed agreement to promote freer trade among the more than 100 members of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade could die. That would abort an expansion of world trade that many nations are counting on to help end the recession afflicting the industrial world. The U.S. would be especially hurt: the GATT agreement contains protections for "intellectual property" (patents, copyrights) that American exporters sorely need but do not now have...
...Mexico defeat of NAFTA could provoke an anti-gringo backlash that would severely hamper President Carlos Salinas de Gortari's efforts to open up its markets and move toward fuller democracy. C. Richard Neu, the CIA's National Intelligence Officer for Economics, has told Congress that a NAFTA defeat "would be widely seen in Mexico not just as a U.S. repudiation of NAFTA but as a rejection of Mexico itself," with severe damage to U.S.-Mexican relations in many areas...
Most important is NAFTA's symbolic value. Diplomatically, the vote is being viewed as a severe test of whether the U.S. will maintain a policy of active engagement in the world or take an inward-looking, protectionist turn. Politically, Clinton's leadership is on trial. A majority of House Democrats, heavily dependent on labor support for election, are against NAFTA. Clinton has the unenviable, but vital challenge of proving that he is enough of a New Democrat to break free of union domination, and that he can bring enough Democrats along with him and forge a strong bipartisan coalition...
...chances of making further gains, however, were not improved by last week's off-year elections. Clinton campaigned hard for New York City Mayor David Dinkins and New Jersey Governor Jim Florio, but both lost. That may cause many Democrats to ask, in effect: Why should I buck anti- NAFTA sentiment in my district to please a President whose ability to help me win re-election is suspect? One Congressman who admits he found the results "unsettling" is Robert Torricelli of New Jersey, a state where labor is strong and every other Democratic Representative has come out against NAFTA. Torricelli...
Republicans too have been subjected to intense and conflicting lobbying pressures. Congressman Paul Gillmor of Ohio tells of receiving two letters from loyal activists who had worked hard for his election. One warned that he would never vote or work for Gillmor again if he voted for NAFTA; the other made precisely the same threat if the Congressman voted against the agreement. Republicans, however, have an extra problem: members of Perot's United We Stand America organization have been pushing hard against NAFTA in their districts, and Perot himself has been calling on them in Washington. William Goodling, a Pennsylvania...