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...pretty good market rally; consumer confidence is up. What's not to like? Rosenberg: There's absolutely nothing wrong with consumer confidence going up, but it's really a matter of watching what consumers are doing as opposed to what they're saying. If you take a look at the retail sales data over the past couple of months, it has moved back down. It looks like consumer spending, after a bit of an increase in the first quarter - mostly just bargain-hunting in January - is also relapsing in the second quarter. I'm not really seeing evidence...
...Index of Leading Economic Indicators is also pointing to better times ahead. What's interesting is that almost half the increase in the leading indicators was from the stock market. So people look at the leading indicators and say, "I gotta buy stocks." And yet the stock market is one of the 10 leading indicators, so it almost becomes a self-perpetuating development. Here's another thing to know about the index of leading indicators: in the past, the upturn in this index precedes the economy's upturn by as much as 12 months. So maybe it's telling...
...return to March lows? It's unclear to me as to whether or not we have to break below the March lows [6440 on the Dow], but I'd be very wary about chasing the stock market right now. We don't have many similar historical examples to look at, but in light of credit contractions and asset deflation, it should be understood that this is not a normal manufacturing-inventory recession. Nor was the 1930s. At that time, we bounced off July 1932 stock market lows, and three months later the market was up 70%. I can only imagine...
...secular theme. I want to be situated in areas of the market that don't have a lot of cyclicality in terms of consumer spending - or capital spending, for that matter. I favor staples stocks (food, beverage companies, etc.) over consumer discretionary stocks (retailers, travel, etc.). Also, look to the traditional areas of the market that perform well in a weak economic environment - not necessarily recessionary, but weak - such as health care or utilities. But you need to be selective...
...impossible to know what caused the disappearance of Air France Flight 447, says Gourguechon. "As frustrating as it is, we'll need more information before we can imagine any scenarios." But for Learmount, if a short-circuit fire is to blame, one thing is for sure. "We have to look here for the lessons we got from that [Swissair flight]," he says. "Airplanes should have heat and smoke detectors all over them ... so that if a fire started anywhere, you would know immediately." He adds, "That has not been implemented by any of the world's leading aviation authorities...