Word: likelihoods
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...Band-Aid. The Witteveen facility is intended to last only one year; in all likelihood, the parent IMF will begin making ordinary loans to oil consumers when the facility's funds are exhausted. By that time, however, the much bigger, $25 billion safety net designed by the U.S. to aid industrial nations should also be in operation. All 24 members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development are to participate in the plan. Each time a member nation is granted a loan, all the other members would assume a set percentage of the risk. The U.S. would...
While peace in the Middle East will not necessarily lead to a price reduction of oil, it would enormously reduce the obstacles to consumer-producer cooperation. A far more important consideration is that the alternative to progress toward peace is the likelihood, if not the inevitability, of a new war. The consequences could be nuclear, and might well involve the U.S. and the U.S.S.R...
...caught up early on in a rather irresponsible kind of Depression Chic. New Times magazine showed on its cover imaginary breadlines at McDonald's. Philadelphia magazine published a "Survival Guide to the Next Depression." U.S. News & World Report, which is hardly trendy or sensational, recently examined the likelihood of another 1929-style crash. The cover line, "What a Depression Is Really Like-Scenes from the 1930s," was a bit alarming for the sober story inside. In fact, economists generally agree that a return to the horrors of the '30s-when unemployment hit 25% as measured then...
...however, as frightened consumers retreat further into their shell and unsold goods pile up, the capital spending boom is fading. Discounted for inflation, it has been dropping for the past six months and is sure to fall even more in 1975 (see chart). The result: an even greater likelihood that the recovery, when it comes, will be low and slow...
UNEMPLOYMENT: The November jobless rate of 6.5% does not reflect the full impact of the coal strike nor the most recent, and continuing, wave of layoffs in auto, appliance and other industries. There is a likelihood that the jobless rate will hit 7% even before the end of 1974, and that it will continue climbing to a peak that members of the Board of Economists estimate at anywhere from 7½% to 8% or even 8¼% (the postwar high was 7.9% during the 1948-49 recession). Moreover, that peak will be reached late in 1975; just as employers...