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...fundamental problem is that economic models - series of equations meant to describe how different parts of the economy fit together - depend on historical data. If you want to know how high unemployment is going to be six months from now, you start with how high it is today. If the economy isn't stable and the old relationships don't hold as well as they used to, then the models break down. In recent years, there have been great advances in economic modeling, says Stock, but forecasts haven't necessarily gotten much better since the economy itself has grown more...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Why Are Economists So Bad at Forecasting? | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

...three bamboo waterwheels. The man carving another at a bench farther from the road came over and showed me how to turn the level so the twisting wheel would touch off the tiny hammers. He told me he spent three days carving each one. I didn’t know how to transport one of these to Hong Kong without breaking it. He took me inside his house to offer tea and show me his other pieces. The most elaborate had ladders and gazebos. Spread over the table, they suggested a miniature amusement park...

Author: By Chelsea L. Shover | Title: Deliberately Lost in the Buffalo’s Gut | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

...contraption, hidden in the bag he gave me to protect it, at the hotel. Was his price of 70 yuan, just over 10 U.S. dollars, a fair cost for three days work? The lesson that hits me at every turn in China returns: I really don’t know. Instead, glimpses from getting lost in bovine entrail-avenues, or in what was taught about equitable wages, collect into impressions that take the place of understanding...

Author: By Chelsea L. Shover | Title: Deliberately Lost in the Buffalo’s Gut | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

...Baer, a former Middle East CIA field officer, is TIME.com's intelligence columnist and the author of See No Evil and, most recently, The Devil We Know: Dealing with the New Iranian Superpower...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: The CIA Is Keeping Secrets. Hello? | 7/16/2009 | See Source »

...While human-rights activists in Russia have been pointing the finger at Kadyrov - "I know, I am sure of it, who is guilty for the murder of Natalya ... His name is Ramzan Kadyrov," said Orlov, Memorial's chairman, in a statement on the organization's website - the Interfax news agency reports that hours after the murder, Kadyrov released a statement calling those who carried out the killing "monstrous" and saying that they "deserve no support and must be punished as the cruelest of criminals...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Killings of Russia's Human-Rights Activists Continue | 7/16/2009 | See Source »

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